Chipmakers Lead a Guidance Season Almost Free of Cuts
Across 130 companies issuing quarterly outlooks, raises outnumbered cuts roughly ten to one, with semiconductor, software and hardware makers reporting no lowered guidance at all.
Guidance season is running lopsided. Across the 130 companies tracked this quarter, raises outnumber lowers by more than ten to one, and the imbalance is starkest in the industries feeding AI infrastructure: Semiconductors posted 12 raises and zero cuts, Software & Cloud logged 10 raises and zero cuts, and Hardware & Devices notched 9 raises against a single maintain and no lowers.
The throughline is capacity. Broadcom (AVGO) guided third-quarter revenue to roughly $29.4 billion, an 84 percent jump from a year earlier, and said AI semiconductor revenue alone should grow more than 200 percent to $16.0 billion in the quarter. Marvell Technology (MRVL) said it is "significantly raising" its revenue outlook for both fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 versus what it told investors just last quarter. Cisco Systems (CSCO) lifted its expected fiscal 2026 AI infrastructure orders from hyperscale customers to $9 billion from $5 billion, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to a range of 29 percent to 33 percent. The spending side of that ledger is just as steep: Alphabet (GOOGL) now expects 2026 capital expenditures of $180 billion to $190 billion and said 2027 spending will rise significantly further, while Meta Platforms (META) raised its 2026 capex range to $125 billion-$145 billion from $115 billion-$135 billion. Software names riding the same current include Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), which raised its 2026 revenue outlook to 17 percent growth, CrowdStrike (CRWD), which lifted its fiscal 2027 net-new ARR growth guidance by 520 basis points, and Salesforce (CRM), which raised the midpoint of its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance.
Healthcare & Pharma and Industrials & Manufacturing show the same tilt toward raises, though with more of the season's few cuts mixed in. Merck (MRK) narrowed and raised its 2026 worldwide sales range to $65.8 billion-$67.0 billion, IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) raised 2026 revenue guidance, and Waters (WAT) lifted its organic revenue growth outlook to 6.5 percent-8.0 percent. Embecta (EMBC) was one of the sector's two lowers, citing dynamics in its U.S. business alongside the pending Owen Mumford acquisition when it cut both revenue and margin guidance.
Retail & Consumer carried the same raise-heavy pattern and most of the visible cuts. Ross Stores (ROST) raised both comparable-sales and earnings guidance, Levi Strauss (LEVI) raised full-year revenue, margin and EPS guidance together, Tapestry (TPR) raised its full outlook across revenue, margin, EPS and cash flow, and Estee Lauder (EL) lifted organic sales growth to the high end of its prior range. Against that, PVH Corp (PVH) now projects roughly flat full-year 2026 revenue, a step down from its earlier call for a slight increase, and lululemon (LULU) cut full-year revenue guidance to $11.000 billion-$11.150 billion and earnings to $10.95-$11.15 per share even as it guided a stronger second quarter.
The season's more cautious corners are the regulated and consumer-staples businesses, where reaffirming a number counts as the headline. Utilities split evenly between raises and maintains, and its lone cut came from Eversource Energy (ES), which revised 2026 earnings guidance down to $4.57-$4.72 per share from an original $4.80-$4.95. Banking, the smallest sample, saw Webster Financial (WBS) withdraw forward guidance entirely pending its transaction with Banco Santander. Food, Beverage & Tobacco produced more reaffirmations than raises — seven maintains against four raises and no cuts — with PepsiCo (PEP), Campbell's (CPB), Altria (MO) and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) all holding prior numbers, even as Philip Morris International (PM) introduced 2026 guidance for adjusted EPS growth of 10.9 percent to 12.9 percent and Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) raised its 2026 adjusted EPS range. Real Estate leaned toward raises too, led by Newmark Group (NMRK), which guided to double-digit top- and bottom-line growth, and EPR Properties (EPR), which lifted its FFOAA guidance, while DiamondRock Hospitality (DRH) trimmed EBITDA and FFO guidance to reflect a hotel sale.
The pattern this quarter has less to do with the calendar than with the balance sheet. Guidance is climbing fastest wherever a company's order book touches AI infrastructure, and holding flattest wherever the business runs on regulated rate cases or shelf-stable demand.